{"product_id":"2940148462521","title":"New Methods of Evaluating the Forecasts Accuracy: A Case Study for USA Inflation","description":"Using the two-year inflation forecasts provided by CBO, Blue Chips and Administration for\u003cbr\u003eUSA on the forecasting horizon 1982-2011, the accuracy of forecasts was assessed.\u003cbr\u003eAccording to U1 Theil’s statistic, the CBO projections are the best, followed by\u003cbr\u003eAdministration and Blue Chips predictions. A new accuracy measure is proposed to be\u003cbr\u003eintroduce in literature (ratio of radicals of sum of squared errors) in order to compare the\u003cbr\u003eforecasts with the naïve ones. The same hierarchy of institutions, according to accuracy\u003cbr\u003ecriterion is obtained if all the computed accuracy indicators are taking into account using\u003cbr\u003eranks method. According to the relative distance method with respect to the better institution\u003cbr\u003eand other methods (binary logistic regression and some non-parametric tests (Wilcoxon and\u003cbr\u003eKruskall-Wallis tests)) the following rank is gotten: Administration, CBO and Blue Chips. All\u003cbr\u003ethese methods (multi-criteria ranking, logistic regression and non-parametric tests) were not\u003cbr\u003ementioned before in literature as possible ways of comparing the forecasts accuracy, but most\u003cbr\u003eof them gave better results than the classical U1, because these methods take into\u003cbr\u003econsideration more aspects regarding the accuracy measurement. Some empirical strategies\u003cbr\u003eof improving the forecasts accuracy were applied (combined forecasts, smoothed predicted\u003cbr\u003evalues based on Holt-Winters technique, Hodrick-Prescott, Baxter King and\u003cbr\u003eChristiano-Fitzegerald filters), getting more accurate predictions only for the combined\u003cbr\u003eforecasts of Blue Chips and Administration using inverse MSE scheme (the highest\u003cbr\u003eimprovement) and equally weighted scheme, but also for forecasts based on CBO and Blue\u003cbr\u003eChips using optimal scheme.","brand":"ReadCycle","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47108768858352,"sku":"2940148462521","price":2.99,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0737\/7593\/9824\/files\/2940148462521_p0.jpg?v=1763709745","url":"https:\/\/shop-qa.barnesandnoble.com\/products\/2940148462521","provider":"Barnes \u0026 Noble (DEV)","version":"1.0","type":"link"}