{"product_id":"2940148505358","title":"Early Warning Indicator Model of Financial Developments Using an Ordered Logit","description":"The recent financial crisis has demonstrated in an impressive way that boom\/bust cycles can\u003cbr\u003ehave devastating effects on the real economy. This paper aims at contributing to the literature\u003cbr\u003eon early warning indicator exercises for asset price development. Using a sample of 17\u003cbr\u003eindustrialised OECD countries and the euro area over the period 1969 Q1 – 2011 Q2, an asset\u003cbr\u003eprice composite indicator incorporating developments in both stock and house price markets is\u003cbr\u003econstructed. The latter is then further developed in order to identify periods that can be\u003cbr\u003echaracterised as asset price booms and busts. The subsequent empirical analysis is based on an\u003cbr\u003eordered logit-type approach incorporating several monetary, financial and real variables.\u003cbr\u003eFollowing some statistical tests, credit aggregates, the interest rate spread together with the\u003cbr\u003ehouse price growth gap and stock price developments appear to be useful indicators for the\u003cbr\u003eprediction of asset price developments.","brand":"ReadCycle","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47072716259568,"sku":"2940148505358","price":2.99,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0737\/7593\/9824\/files\/2940148505358_p0.jpg?v=1763703475","url":"https:\/\/shop-qa.barnesandnoble.com\/products\/2940148505358","provider":"Barnes \u0026 Noble (DEV)","version":"1.0","type":"link"}