{"product_id":"2940169094343","title":"The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: Second Edition: With a New Section: \"On Robustness and Fragility\"","description":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003eThe Black Swan\u003c\/i\u003e is a stand-alone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb¿s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don¿t understand. The other audiobooks in the series are \u003ci\u003eFooled by Randomness\u003c\/i\u003e, \u003ci\u003eAntifragile\u003c\/i\u003e, \u003ci\u003eSkin in the Game\u003c\/i\u003e, and \u003ci\u003eThe Bed of Procrustes\u003c\/i\u003e.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eA black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9\/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWhy do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don¿t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the ¿impossible¿.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eFor years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory audiobook, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don¿t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, ¿On Robustness and Fragility¿, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eElegant, startling, and universal in its applications, \u003ci\u003eThe Black Swan\u003c\/i\u003e will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. \u003ci\u003eThe Black Swan\u003c\/i\u003e is a landmark audiobook amp;mdash; itself a black swan.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Penguin Random House","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47161184846064,"sku":"2940169094343","price":25.0,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0737\/7593\/9824\/files\/2940169094343_p0.jpg?v=1763761045","url":"https:\/\/shop-qa.barnesandnoble.com\/products\/2940169094343","provider":"Barnes \u0026 Noble (DEV)","version":"1.0","type":"link"}