Ultimate Blackjack System

Is Blackjack a "Winnable" Game?
When blackjack first became a casino staple, it was assumed that
it was rather like baccarat, where the house, by virtue of the
rules determining play, had a statistical edge. All players and
students of the game assumed that this advantage existed based
on two simple facts. One, the player had to act first. Two, all
busts (hands totaling over twenty-one) were losers no matter
what the dealer later drew. These two rules seem to give the
house an incontrovertible edge.
Conventional began to change in 1956 when a paper by Baldwin,
Cantey, Maisel, and McDermont was published in the _Journal of
the American Statistical Association_. This paper and a blackjack
strategy manual published by Baldwin et al. the following
year both attracted very little interest among non mathematicians,
but it would prove to be the first step toward determining
that blackjack is a "winnable" game.
Edward O. Thorp, a scientist at MIT, did understand the implications
of the work of Baldwin and his colleagues and began to examine
two elements of the game that were previously unexamined.
One, the composition of a deck of cards changes with every card
dealt. Two, some deck compositions favor the player and other
favor the house. In 1962, Thorp published his now famous book,
_Beat the Dealer_, which contained a simple yet profound message.
Unlike dice, roulette wheels, and slot machines, decks of
cards have "memory."
Blackjack, unlike Roulette for example, is a winnable game because
of this "memory." Let's look at an example. You are sitting
at the Roulette table and the dealer throws the ball and it
comes to rest on the number 9. Now, when he throws the ball
again for the next round, what are the odds the ball lands on 9
again? Assuming the wheel is not rigged or the dealer is not
trained to "fix" the outcome, the odds of the ball landing on 9
again are exactly the same! Let's take it a step further. Assume
that the ball does indeed land on 9 again - twice more. Now the
ball has landed on the 9 three times in a row! What are the odds
this happens a fourth time? Exactly the same! There is no statistical
reason that the ball should "avoid" landing on 9 again.
Blackjack is different. Let's look at a similar situation in
blackjack. You are at the table with two other players. The
dealer deals a 9 to each of the players at the table. Now the
odds of dealing another 9 have been significantly reduced. In a
six deck game the odds have been reduced from 3:49 to 7:104.
This fact alone makes blackjack a winnable game. We will learn
later how to take advantage of this.
How to Play Blackjack
Setup
Blackjack is played at a table with a single dealer and from one
to seven players. The layout gives a few basic rules, such as
the payoff for
blackjack; for
insurance; and
whether the
dealer hits on
soft seventeen.
There will
usually be a small sign to one side of the dealer that gives the
table stakes and any special rules, such as whether surrender is
allowed. You must ask to discover the other unposted rules and
regulations. You will need to know, for example, whether doubling
down after splitting is allowed, whether a player may double
down on any two cards, whether pairs may be split a second
time, and whether aces may be resplit. Such rules determine
whether the basic game is favorable or unfavorable.
Rules
The game itself is simple. You, the player, attempt to accumulate
cards with a numerical total closer to (but not more than)
twenty-one than those accumulated by the dealer. If you do so,
you win. If the dealers' total is closer to twenty-one than
yours, you lose. Winning hands are paid off at even odds. If you
and the dealer both arrive at the same total, the hand is a
"push," and nobody wins. All bets must be made before any cards
are dealt, and no bet may be changed once the first card has
been dealt.
Each player is initially dealt two cards; they may be face-down
or face-up, depending on the rules of the casino. The dealer
gets two cards, one face-up and one face-down. The value of the
cards is given by their face value except that the ace (A)
counts as either 1 or 11 and the 10, jack (J), queen (Q), and
king (K) all count as 10.
The combination of an A and any 10 on the first two cards is a
blackjack and is an automatic winner (unless both dealer and
player have it, in which case it's a push). A player blackjack
is paid at 3 to 2. When the house has a blackjack the player
merely loses his bet and not one and a half times that bet. Any
combination of cards that exceeds 21 is a bust and a loser. The
player always goes first, so if the player's total exceeds 21
the hand is ...