PROJECTING PYONGYANG: THE FUTURE OF NORTH KOREA’S KIM JONG IL REGIME

This monograph considers the future trajectory of
the Pyongyang regime and explores a range of future
scenarios. It does not consider the future of North Korea
as a geographic or territorial entity. Some analysts
and observers discuss the future without clarifying
whether they are discussing the country of North
Korea or the Pyongyang regime. In this monograph,
the focus is on the fate of the regime dominated by
the Kim Dynasty, initially ruled by Kim Il Sung and
then led by his son, Kim Jong Il, following the former’s
death in 1994. A fundamental assumption is that the
regime will collapse. Thus, the key question is not
whether the regime will collapse, but when and how it
will collapse. The logic behind this assumption is based
on this author’s assessment that the Kim regime is a
totalitarian one, and that such a regime has a limited
life span. However, this collapse may be a long and
drawn out process that could very well play out over a
period of years or even over the course of a decade or
more.