TURKMENISTAN AND CENTRAL ASIA AFTER NIYAZOV

On December 21, 2006, President Sapirmurat Niyazov,
Turkmenistan’s all-powerful leader suddenly died. His
death led to a succession that was evidently dominated
by the secret police whose nominee, Gurbanguly
Berdymukhammedov, has established himself as president.
Because Central Asia is a cockpit of great power rivalry
and a potential theater in the Global War on Terrorism,
no sooner had Niyazov died than the great powers were
seeking to influence Turkmenistan’s future policies
away from the neutrality that had been Niyazov’s policy.
Turkmenistan’s importance lies almost exclusively in its
large natural gas holdings and proximity to the Caspian Sea
and Iran. Because energy is regarded as a strategic asset,
Russia, Iran, China, and the United States have been visibly
engaged in competition for influence. The outcome of this
competition and of the domestic struggle for power will
have repercussions throughout Central Asia.
In this monograph, Dr. Stephen Blank shows the linkage
between energy and security policies in Central Asia and
in the policies of the major powers towards Central Asia.
Beyond this analysis, he provides recommendations for U.S.
policymakers as to how they should conduct themselves
in this complex situation. This monograph continues SSI’s
focus not just on Central Asia, but on regional security
issues in the contemporary world.