PROSPECTS FROM KOREAN REUNIFICATION

Throughout the 1990s, predictions of Korean reunification were rife. Since then,
enthusiasm for such predictions have faded, and although the underlying assumption
of reunification remains, forecasts of when and how this will occur have been more
subdued. Reunification poses two distinct yet interdependent conundrums: reunification
itself, which is the immediate challenge; and the strategic landscape that emerges from
reunification, which has the potential to fundamentally transform strategic relationships
in Northeast Asia. Within this context, this paper examines the prospects from Korean
reunification. Initially, it will establish the framework from which such prospects will
emerge: the nature of the North Korean regime, the cost of reunification, and likely
reunification scenarios. From this framework, a raft of challenges and opportunities
present themselves to the stakeholders in the region; and South Korea, China, the United
States and, to a lesser extent, Japan and Russia will be examined to determine prospects
from Korean reunification. The paper will suggest that China, at the expense of the United
States, has positioned itself to profoundly influence the nature of reunification, the “tilt”
of a unified Korea, and with it, the future Northeast Asian strategic environment.