POLITICAL TRENDS IN THE NEW EASTERN EUROPE: UKRAINE AND BELARUS

Belarus remains the last true dictatorship in Europe.
As such, its internal and external security agenda is an
abiding matter of concern to the European and Western
communities. But its trajectory is of equal concern
to Moscow, which has been the prime external supporter
and subsidizer of the Belarussian government
under President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. So while
Europe seeks to induce democratic change and democratic
forces are trying to establish themselves in the
face of withering oppression, Russia has hitherto been
the main external prop for Lukashenka’s policies. But
despite this support—most pronounced until 2007 in
terms of defense cooperation which is continuing, and
in energy subsidies which are being terminated—tensions
between Moscow and Minsk are growing. The
brief energy cutoffs imposed by Moscow at the start
of the year and Belarus’ retaliation shows that not all
is well in that relationship. Not surprisingly, Lukashenka
has now turned back to the West for foreign support,
but it will not be forthcoming without significant
domestic reform which is quite unlikely.
Ukraine presents a different series of puzzles and
challenges to Western leaders and audiences. It too
has suffered from Russian energy coercion, but its political
system is utterly different from Belarus and in a
state of profound turmoil. Therefore, precise analysis
of what has occurred and what is currently happening
in Ukraine is essential to a correct understanding
of trends there that can then inform sound policymaking.
These two papers, presented at the Strategic Studies
Institute (SSI)-Ellison Center conference on Russia in 2006, open the way to this kind of informed understanding
of important issues in European security and
enable readers to begin to make sense of the complex
issues involved in each country. In both cases, the interplay
of domestic and foreign factors of security is critical
to any grasp of the issues in Belarus and Ukraine
and thus to sound policy analysis and policymaking
in regard to them. This interplay is one of the defining
features of the international security agenda that the
U.S. Army, U.S. Government, and to a lesser degree,
SSI grapple with on a daily basis and which SSI seeks
to present to its audiences.