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william the wierd

What's Wrong With Economic Policy 2nd ed.

What's Wrong With Economic Policy 2nd ed.

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A very simple argument but counter-intuitively a 16 year old cheerleader really is more likely to understand the problems than her 40 something mom.

Why would that be?

Only since roughly 1970 has it been possible to affordably compile data on economic assets.

So, assets like houses and cars tend to be ignored. Prior to 1990 there was no housing index. Mom may know this but "fluff-brain" is more likely to understand how asset bubbles work and fail despite her C average.

The need to sell more advertising on cable channels caused an explosion of research into the 1930a that put the dust bowl into curricula. So again FB not only thinks she knows more than mom about this subject she probably and provably does.

The most expensive asset is a child and also the major engine of consumption.
Economic policy is based on immediate consumption and suppressing asset investment that does not lead to more jobs quickly and children produce relatively little immediate consumption until they become teens. This knowledge was obtained by the Dept. of the commerce in the 1980s and popularized in various forms in the 1990s. FB probably has a better grasp of this too than mom.

Economic policy is set by people who were carefully trained to believe things that are now known to be not so.

Economic theories that ignore the farmland bubble of 1915-early 1921 and its crash from late 1921-39, pretty much all of them, were disproved by the meltdown.

The housing bubble of 1994-2006 was much bigger than 1923-6.
The conduct of the Fed was more egregious. At the 1998 bailout of Long Term Capital Management Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers were the only banks that went light. Short of declaring bankruptcy right on the spot a stronger signal of illiquidity and insolvency would be harder to give. But economic policy is based on the fact that 10 years of loan write downs and the worse drought in US history starting in 1930 has yet to be analyzed. Therefore Federal Reserve Board imperfections must have caused the Great Depression. This more or less defines confirmation bias, seeing what you want to see not what is actually there.

The speed up of dam building under the Power Act of 1920 was at least as good as the stimulus packages of 2008-9..The market crash was at least as bad as 1929..

So, why weren't the outcomes comparable?

Then there is the problem that the behavioral traits that govern economic exchange are much more heritable about 85% hereditary than behavioral traits in general which are only about 50% hereditary. Pointing this out gets economists in big trouble with other behavioral scientists and biologists, so, economists don't point this out.

The main reason I am writing this book instead of an economist is because I have not been as heavily indoctrinated into believing things that have relatively recently been proven false. That is the exact same advantage I am attributing to Fluff Brain as opposed to her mom.

That said, I hope you enjoy reading this even half as much as I enjoyed writing it .
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