Themes in Investing

This book covers my recent investing experiences, some good and some bad. All my investment decisions are based on educated guesses. They're not after-the-fact facts which would do us no good in making money. However past experiences will give us better education for the next guesses. In general, the better the education, the better chance the guess will materialize.

Looking for the next theme could be very profitable and sometimes protective. The recent theme is seeking the bottom of oil price. I have four purchases making over 20% each and astronomically annualized returns. I have about 50% in cash before the August, 2015 market correction.

All the themes are educated guesses and I do not expect all to be materialized. However, in the long run, we should have more wins than losses.

The market is not always rational. Hence, the best educated guesses may not materialize. That's why do not bet everything on one guess as illustrated in my first section Risk Tolerance.

The average of the loss of the last two market crashes is about 45% from their peaks. It is the main theme in this book and I allocate a good portion of this book to this theme. I also debunk the myth of "you cannot time the market".

Each theme is described with my result and then backed up with techniques and/or theories behind them.