Annual Energy Outlook 2016, With Projections to 2040

The Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (AEO2016), prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2040. The projections, focused on U.S. energy markets, are based on results from EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS enables EIA to make projections under alternative, internally consistent sets of assumptions. The analysis in AEO2016 focuses on the Reference case and 17 alternative cases. The AEO2016 report is a complete edition of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) and includes the following major sections: Executive summary: highlighting key results of the projections Legislation and regulations: discussing evolving legislative and regulatory issues, including a summary of recently enacted legislation and regulations as incorporated in AEO2016, such as: the EPA’s final rules for the CPP [1]; the California Air Resource Board Zero Emission Vehicle program [2]; the extension of the production tax credit for wind and 30% investment tax credit for solar [3]; the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships [4]; adoption of newly added or modified federal efficiency standards for residential and commercial appliances and equipment; and modifications to existing state renewable portfolio standard or similar laws [5].

Issues in focus: containing discussions of selected energy topics, including the effects of the CPP under alternative implementation approaches; the impact of Phase 2 standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles; a discussion that compares the Reference case to alternative cases based on different assumptions about the future course of existing energy policies; the impact on hydrocarbon gas liquids output from changing oil prices and related industrial development; and the sensitivity of steel industry energy consumption to technology choice. Market trends: complete summary by sector of the projections for energy markets comparing the AEO2016 Reference case and the alternative cases, illustrating uncertainties associated with the Reference case projections for energy demand, supply, and prices. Comparisons with other projections: comparing the AEO2016 Reference case to comparable aspects of projections provided by ExxonMobil, IHS Global Insight, International Energy Agency, ICF, BP p.l.c., National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc., and Wood Mackenzie, Inc., among others.

Audience: Anyone interested and invested in energy market trends, potential changes in U.S. energy policies, rules, and regulations, and the potential role of advanced technologies in energy projections.