Looking Beyond the Horizon: How Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Responses Will Reshape Agriculture in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. In many countries, such as the four_x000D_ examined in Looking Beyond the Horizon, the risks of climate change are an immediate and fundamental_x000D_ problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for_x000D_ its livelihood._x000D_ _x000D_ The risks of climate change to agriculture cannot be eff ectively dealt with—and the opportunities cannot be_x000D_ eff ectively exploited—without a clear plan for aligning agricultural policies with climate change, developing_x000D_ the capabilities of key agricultural institutions, and investing in infrastructure, support services, and on-farm_x000D_ improvements. Developing such a plan ideally involves a combination of high-quality quantitative analysis;_x000D_ consultation with key stakeholders, particularly farmers and local agricultural experts; and investments in_x000D_ both human and physical capital. The diverse experiences of Albania, the former Yugoslav Republic of_x000D_ Macedonia, Moldova, and Uzbekistan, highlighted in this book, show that it is possible to develop a plan to_x000D_ meet these objectives—one that is comprehensive and empirically driven as well as consultative and quick_x000D_ to develop._x000D_ _x000D_ The approach of this volume is predicated on strong country ownership and participation, and is defi ned by_x000D_ its emphasis on “win-win” or “no regrets” solutions to the multiple challenges posed by climate change for the_x000D_ farmers of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The solutions are measures that increase resilience to future_x000D_ climate change, boost current productivity despite the greater climate variability already occurring, and limit_x000D_ greenhouse gas emissions—also known as “climate-smart agriculture.”_x000D_ _x000D_ Looking Beyond the Horizon draws on the experiences of applying this approach to these four nations in_x000D_ Eastern Europe and Central Asia with the goal of helping each country mainstream climate change_x000D_ adaptation into its agricultural policies, programs, and investments. The book also highlights the projected_x000D_ impacts of climate change on agriculture in these countries through forecast variations in temperature and_x000D_ rainfall patterns, which are crucial to farming, and off ers a map for navigating the risks and realizing_x000D_ the opportunities. Finally, a detailed e xplanation of the approach, as well as lessons learned from its_x000D_ implementation, is provided for those who would like to implement similar programs in other countries of_x000D_ Europe, Central Asia, or anywhere else in the world.