Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts: A Multidimensional Approach of Traits, Techniques, and Targets

The goal of this text is to address the three distinct dimensions of an analyst’s thinking: traits (who), techniques (how), and targets (what). Based on a decade of academic research and university teaching in a program for aspiring analysts, this multidimensional approach will help analysts go beyond the traditional boundaries of accumulating knowledge or critical thinking with techniques to assess the unique targets of reasoning in the information age. This approach is not just a set of techniques, but covers all elements of reasoning by discussing the personal, procedural, and problem-specific aspects. It also addresses key challenges, such as uncertain data, irrelevant or misleading information, indeterminate outcomes, and significance for clients through an extensive examination of hypothesis development, causal analysis, futures exploration, and strategy assessment. Both critical and creative thinking, which are essential to reasoning in intelligence, are integrated throughout. Structured around independently readable chapters, the text offers a systematic approach to reasoning along with an extensive toolkit that will serve the needs of both students and intelligence professionals.