Growing Beyond the Low-Cost Advantage: How the People's Republic of China can Avoid the Middle-Income Trap

The economic success of the People's Republic of China (PRC) over the last three decades has brought with it new challenges. With a per capita gross national income of $4,930 in 2011, the PRC has just passed the threshold of upper-middle-income status and it still has a long way to go before becoming a high-income country. But with rising wages and population aging, growth will have to be increasingly driven by productivity improvement through innovation and industrial upgrading---the PRC needs to move from a lowcost to a high-value economy. Moreover, rapid growth has exposed several structural problems, in particular, economic imbalances, rising inequality, resource constraints, and environmental degradation. If not addressed, these problems could hinder PRC's efforts in moving toward a high-value economy and increase the risk of getting caught in what is increasingly known as the "middle-income trap."